Federal Arson Sentences in the District of Arizona, FY2016–2025
19 people were sentenced in the District of Arizona for arson offenses in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, and all 19 received a prison term. The median prison term was 36 months (3 years), lower than the 60 months for arson cases in all 94 federal districts. 13 of the 19 people were sentenced in fiscal y
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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Federal Sentences in the District of Arizona, FY2016–2025 › Arson: District of Arizona
In brief: 19 people were sentenced in the District of Arizona for arson offenses in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, and all 19 received a prison term. The median prison term was 36 months (3 years), lower than the 60 months for arson cases in all 94 federal districts. 13 of the 19 people were sentenced in fiscal years 2020 to 2025.
This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 19 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.
Arson Prison Terms in the District
All 19 people received a prison term, and none received probation only. The median prison term was 36 months, or 3 years. A quarter received 53 months or more, and a quarter received 16.6 months or less.
For arson cases in all 94 districts, 96% of people were sent to prison and the median prison term was 60 months. For all offenses in the District of Arizona, the median was 9 months.
These are the terms imposed by the court, not time served.
When the Cases Were Sentenced
6 people were sentenced in fiscal years 2016 to 2019, and 13 in fiscal years 2020 to 2025.
The table lists the years that had cases. Fiscal year 2024 had 7 people, which is the most of any year. Each year has so few people that its median reflects a handful of sentences.
The medians range widely. The 2025 median was 254.5 months, based on 2 people, and the 2017 median was 6.6 months, based on 1 person. Counts this small cannot show a trend.
| Fiscal year | People sentenced | Median prison | Pleaded guilty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | 60 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2017 | 1 | 6.6 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2018 | 2 | 35.5 months | 2 of 2 |
| 2019 | 2 | 22 months | 2 of 2 |
| 2021 | 3 | 31 months | 3 of 3 |
| 2023 | 1 | 36 months | 1 of 1 |
| 2024 | 7 | 21.1 months | 7 of 7 |
| 2025 | 2 | 254.5 months | 1 of 2 |
Pleas and the One Trial
18 of the 19 people (95%) pleaded guilty, and 1 was convicted after a trial. In all districts, 93% of arson cases ended in a guilty plea.
The median prison term after a guilty plea was 33.5 months. The one person convicted at trial received 438 months. A single case is not enough to compare trials with pleas.
Every guilty plea had a written plea agreement.
Position Against the Guideline Range
The guideline range is the sentencing range that the Commission's rules produce for each case. Only 4 sentences (21%) were within it. For arson cases in all districts, the share was 45%.
7 sentences (37%) were below the range without a government request, and 6 (32%) were below it at the government's request. 2 (11%) were above the range.
A mandatory minimum prison term applied to 2 of the 19 people (11%).
The Guideline Behind These Cases
"Arson" is the U.S. Sentencing Commission's category, assigned by the main guideline used in the case. All 19 cases used §2K1.4 (Arson).
The data counts only people who were convicted and sentenced. It does not include acquittals or dismissals.
Supervised Release and Other Terms
All 19 people (100%) were ordered to serve supervised release after prison, with a median term of 60 months. No fine was ordered. Restitution was ordered for 7 people (37%).
Criminal history: 63% were in the lowest category I, and 5% were in the highest, category VI. Court-martial records have no criminal history field.
What Cannot Be Learned From This Data
Arson cases were less than 1% of the 47,716 people sentenced in the district in these years. The records do not describe any case, so they cannot show what caused a sentence to be short or long.
Davis-Monthan AFB, Fort Huachuca, Luke AFB, and Marine Corps Air Station Yuma are in this district. Courts-martial are tried in military courts, not in this federal district court.
How We Counted
Everyone sentenced in federal court in the District of Arizona (U.S. Sentencing Commission district label "Arizona") in fiscal years 2016 to 2025 whose offense type was "Arson" (19). Offense types are the Commission's OFFGUIDE categories.
Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.
What to Keep in Mind
No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.
Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.
Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.
Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.
How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.
Mandatory minimum sentences. Many federal statutes on drugs, images of child exploitation, child sex abuse, and firearms carry mandatory minimum prison terms. The UCMJ has mandatory minimums only for a few offenses (a dishonorable discharge or dismissal for rape and sexual assault, and life for premeditated murder). Federal sentences for these offenses are partly set by Congress, not by the judge.
Related Analysis
- Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System (the background article)
- Federal Prosecution Analysis (all federal posts)
- How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built (sources and method)
- Federal Sentences in the District of Arizona, FY2016–2025 (overview)
- Federal Immigration Offense Sentences in the District of Arizona, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Drug Trafficking Sentences in the District of Arizona, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Drug Possession Sentences in the District of Arizona, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- Federal Fraud, Theft, and Embezzlement Sentences in the District of Arizona, FY2016–2025 (same district, other offense type)
- U.S. Sentencing Commission, Individual Offender Datafiles (source)
- Federal Judicial Center, Integrated Database (criminal defendants) (source)
About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.