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Sexual Abuse of an Adult: Sentences After a Guilty Plea vs. After Trial, Federal Court and Courts-Martial

In courts-martial for sexual abuse of an adult, the median confinement was 22 months after a guilty plea and 26.8 months in contested cases ending in conviction. In federal court, the median prison term was 63 months after a guilty plea and 131.5 months after a trial. The sources define a trial diff

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Trends › Federal Prosecution Analysis › Sexual Abuse of an Adult › Sexual Abuse of an Adult: Plea vs. Trial

In brief: In courts-martial for sexual abuse of an adult, the median confinement was 22 months after a guilty plea and 26.8 months in contested cases ending in conviction. In federal court, the median prison term was 63 months after a guilty plea and 131.5 months after a trial. The sources define a trial differently, and the difference matters for reading the gap.

Updated November 2, 2026 · Sources: U.S. Sentencing Commission and Federal Judicial Center, fiscal years 2016–2025 · Military Trial Results

This post uses the U.S. Sentencing Commission's records of 531 people sentenced in federal court in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, compared with court-martial results from this site's Military Trial Results data (updated November 2, 2026). Acquittals and dismissals come from a second source, the Federal Judicial Center's records of 753,808 federal defendants whose cases ended in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. It is part of the Federal Prosecution Analysis series, which builds on Military Moves Toward Sentencing Guidelines to Mirror the Federal System. How the numbers were built: How the Federal Comparison Data Was Built.

Sentences After a Plea and After Trial in Federal Court

The federal data covers 531 people sentenced under guideline §2A3.1 or §2A3.4 where the statute of conviction shows an adult victim (18 U.S.C. 2241(a)/(b), 2242, 2244), in fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Of these, 87% pleaded guilty.

The median prison term after a guilty plea was 63 months. After a trial it was 131.5 months, based on 66 people convicted at trial and sent to prison. In the federal data, trial includes people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others.

Sentences After a Plea and After Trial in Courts-Martial

Court-martial records for trials from 2016 to 2025 show 364 convictions after a guilty plea and 465 convictions in contested cases. A plea was recorded for 829 convictions, and 364 (44%) were guilty pleas.

The median confinement after a guilty plea was 22 months, from 347 cases with confinement. In contested cases ending in conviction, it was 26.8 months, from 374 cases with confinement.

The Gap Is Not the Same in Each Service

The table shows medians by service. In the Army, the median was 15 months after a guilty plea and 30 months in contested cases. In the Air Force, it was 21.7 months and 24 months.

The pattern was reversed in the other services. The Navy median was 36 months after a guilty plea and 24 months in contested cases. The Marine Corps median was 24 months after a guilty plea and 36 months in contested cases, from only 22 cases.

ServiceMedian confinement after a guilty plea (cases)Median confinement, contested cases (cases)
Army15 months (133)30 months (158)
Air Force21.7 months (25)24 months (126)
Navy36 months (80)24 months (68)
Marine Corps24 months (109)36 months (22)

Federal Sentences Against the Guideline Range

Federal sentences were within the guideline range for 46% of people. The sentence was below the range at the government's request for 27% and below the range without a government request for 17%.

Sentences above the range were given to 9%. The records do not break these positions out by plea or trial, so they cannot show how much the plea explains the 63-month and 131.5-month medians.

What Contested Means in Each System

A court-martial is contested when the accused pleads not guilty to at least one charge. That group can include a mixed plea.

The federal trial group is the people who went to trial, including those with mixed counts. Neither group is a pure comparison of plea against trial.

Limits of the Records

Court-martial sentences are as adjudged at trial, before any clemency or appeal. Federal prison terms are the terms imposed, not time served. Medians use only the cases with confinement.

The records show the sentence and the plea, and they do not show the facts of a case or any offer made before a plea. For that reason, the records cannot show whether a plea produced a lower sentence.

How We Counted

Courts-martial: convictions for sexual abuse of an adult (Article 120 rape, sexual assault, and abusive sexual contact) with trial dates in 2016 to 2025, split by plea (364 guilty pleas, 465 contested). Medians use cases with confinement adjudged. Federal: 531 people sentenced under primary sentencing guideline §2A3.1 or §2A3.4 where the statute of conviction shows an adult victim (18 U.S.C. 2241(a)/(b), 2242, 2244), fiscal years 2016 to 2025 (U.S. Sentencing Commission).

Federal fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30. No person, judge, or lawyer is identified in any of these records.

What to Keep in Mind

Who is in each set of numbers. The federal sentencing numbers come from the U.S. Sentencing Commission. They count only people who were convicted and sentenced in federal district court. People whose cases were dismissed or who were acquitted are not in them. The military numbers come from court-martial results, which include acquittals. To compare acquittal or dismissal rates, the federal side uses a different source: the Federal Judicial Center's case data, which counts every defendant whose case ended.

Different cases reach each system. Federal prosecutors bring a narrow set of cases. In fiscal year 2024, immigration and drug trafficking cases were 59% of everyone sentenced in federal court (36,664 of 61,678). Many crimes that the military prosecutes, such as most assaults, most sexual assaults between adults, and drug use, are usually state crimes for civilians and reach federal court only in special situations, such as on federal land or in Indian Country. A federal case and a court-martial for the same crime can involve different kinds of facts.

Time periods. Federal numbers are by federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), based on the sentencing date. The military numbers are by trial date. Neither source has the date of the offense, so a change in law shows up in either data set gradually.

Offense categories do not line up exactly. Each comparison uses a federal offense group chosen to match the military article as closely as possible (see the crosswalk). Some matches are close; others are partial. The post says which federal guideline or statute was used and why it is not an exact match.

No parole in federal prison; credit for good conduct. Federal prison has no parole for crimes committed on or after November 1, 1987. A federal prisoner can earn up to 54 days of good conduct credit for each year of the sentence the judge imposed, which is about 15%. Some federal prisoners can also earn First Step Act time credits, but many offenses make a person ineligible. The numbers in this post are the sentences judges imposed, not the time people actually served.

Military confinement credit and parole. For military sentences adjudged after 2004, good conduct time is 5 days for each month of confinement, about 16%. Military prisoners can also earn up to 8 more days a month for work and programs and up to 2 days a month for special acts, with a limit of 15 days a month in total. Military prisoners can be considered for parole by their service's clemency and parole board. The military numbers in this post are the confinement adjudged at trial, not the time served.

Military sentences include punishments federal sentences do not. A court-martial sentence can include a punitive discharge (bad-conduct discharge, dishonorable discharge, or dismissal for officers), reduction in rank, and forfeiture of pay. These have no federal counterpart. A comparison of months of confinement leaves them out. A short confinement term combined with a dishonorable discharge is a heavier sentence than the months alone show.

Federal supervised release. Most federal prison sentences are followed by a term of supervised release that the judge sets as part of the sentence. A person who violates it can be sent back to prison. A court-martial cannot sentence anyone to supervision after release. Military parole and mandatory supervised release are decided later by a board, not by the judge at trial.

Who decides the sentence, and under what rules. Federal judges sentence every federal case. They must calculate the Sentencing Guidelines range, which is advisory, and must impose any mandatory minimum the statute requires unless an exception applies. In courts-martial, the accused could choose sentencing by members until the rules changed. For cases in which every guilty finding is for an offense committed after December 27, 2023, a military judge sentences alone, within sentencing parameters. Courts-martial tried in 2024 and later include both old-rule and new-rule cases, and the data cannot tell them apart.

How life sentences and "time served" are counted. In the federal numbers, a life sentence is counted as 470 months, and any other sentence longer than 470 months is counted as just under 470 months. A sentence of "time served" is counted as one day (0.03 months). Averages are affected by these rules; medians much less.

Plea agreements work differently. In federal court, most plea agreements do not bind the judge on the sentence. Since 2019, a military plea agreement can set a minimum and maximum sentence that the military judge must follow if the judge accepts the agreement. The federal numbers count anyone who pleaded guilty, with or without a written agreement.

How "plea" and "trial" are counted. In the federal sentencing numbers, "trial" means the person was convicted after a trial, including people who pleaded guilty to some counts and went to trial on others. People acquitted at trial are not in these numbers at all (see "Who is in each set of numbers"). In the federal case data, the trial rate counts both convictions and acquittals at trial among all defendants whose cases ended, including dismissed cases. Military numbers count contested cases that reached a verdict. These denominators are not the same, and each post states the one it uses.

Related Analysis

About the author. Jocelyn C. Stewart is a retired Army JAG with more than 24 years of trying courts-martial and more than 200 jury trials. She hosts Where All The Bodies Are Buried and runs the Law Office of Jocelyn C. Stewart. This analysis is for education and information only. It is not legal advice, and every case is different.

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